Not so fast, my friend.

Sure, the national unemployment numbers are still tough to swallow.  And yes, we are still seeing more vacant store fronts popping up.  Discretionary spending is off, too, though you have to wonder when you see folks descend on a mall and drop hundreds of dollars on trivial junk for Christmas.

But here in Cape May County, New Jersey at the shore, the tide has turned in the real estate market.  Pun intended.  With interest rates hovering around 4% and prices nearly half of what they were in 2005, sales have been brisk.  We’re also seeing that folks are tired of sitting on the sidelines and after five years they ackowledge the opportunity is there to finally purchase and own a vacation home at the Jersey Shore.  If they were 55 years old back in 2005, they’re now 60 and not getting any younger.  I call it the “now or never” syndrome.  If they waited much longer to buy a second home, some would probably just say forget it.

Back in 2004, we began telling our clients that the days of buying pre-construction condos, then flipping them a year later the day after closing, were over.  We saw an overabundance of new construction and sensed that the market was shifting.  Unfortunately, we were right.  We are getting that same feeling again, except this time it’s a turn in the other direction. 

We believe that the vacation home market leads the way.  Our real estate market was the first to fall apart, and it is the first to recover.  And why not?  Folks who can afford second homes usually own their own business or they are high enough up on the corporate ladder to have a solid income.  When the national media began their gloom and doom predictions, the frugal upper and upper-middle class folks pulled back and stopped spending.  Now that they’ve endured five years of a recession and the sky hasn’t fallen in, they’re back.

Here at Jewell Real Estate Agency, we have sold 2.5 times more properties this year than in 2009.  We’re not bleeding greenbacks anymore.  Not only are we relieved, we’re very optimistic.  No doubt, it will take the primary home market another two years to catch fire.  But when it does, all will be well in Whoville.

- Mountain Man

In 2007, St. Raymond’s elementary/junior high school in the Villas section of Lower Township was closed by the Diocese of Camden, which oversees the Catholic goings-on in southern New Jersey.  Students, parents, and teachers were saddened, outraged, and in shock.  Students were offered the chance to transfer to Star of the Sea in Cape May or St. Ann’s in Wildwood.

Then in 2008 the Diocese announced the closing of Star of the Sea elementary/junior high school, merging it with St. Ann’s elementary/junior high school.  That didn’t sit well with Star of the Sea parents, who didn’t like the prospect of their kids be bussed to lowly Wildwood, a decidedly less affluent community.  The parents are still fighting the closing, recently taking out ads on the radio to drum up support for keeping Star of the Sea open.  Tuition at the school is around $3,500 for Catholic kids and a thousand dollars more for non-Catholics.

The diocese also previously announced the closing of the Assumption church in upscale Wildwood Crest, offering just summer services when tourists are in town.  Parishioners picketed and instituted a letter writing campaign to keep their church, which is self-supporting and not losing money, from merging with St. Ann’s.  The move by the Diocese was part of a plan to merge 14 Cape may County parishes into eight.

With all these closings happening, the biggest shock is the demise of Wildwood Catholic High School, an institution on the island since 1948.  The North Wildwood school boasts state titles in soccer and basketball, and their rivalries with Wildwood High School and other county high schools are legendary.  In the 1990′s, the school’s enrollment increased from 250 to 374 students.  A $1.5 million addition was built onto the school to handle the increase. 

But in these tough economic times, with tuition at the Catholic high school running about $6,000 per student, many parents balked at sending their kids there.  And yes, religion is less common in families than in previous times.  Enrollment is now down to 194 at Wildwood Catholic High.  The school will lose a half million dollars this year, with expected red ink of $900,000 next year if they stayed open.

Catholic parents of high schoolers will now have several options of where to send their kids next year.  To stay parochial, the options are Holy Spirit High School in Absecon (35 miles), St. Augustine in Richland (45 miles), or St. Joseph in Hammonton (52 miles).  Locally, the students can attend their home public high schools which are Wildwood HS, Lower Cape May Regional HS, Middle Township HS, Ocean City HS, or Cape May Technical HS. 

Unlike St. Raymond’s, which now sits unused and gathering dust, Wildwood Catholic will not be mothballed.  The school will become the new home of the St. Ann and Star of the Sea merger and used for church activities, offices, and ministry.  It presumably will be called Cape Trinity Catholic School.

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

I’ve had a cell phone for 10 years, and now 85% of Americans do too, according to statistics.  Judging from my older friends, I think I personally know many of the 15% who don’t.

I bought my first computer in 1993, just months before launching my own weekly all-sports newspaper.  I didn’t know how to do much, other than type articles into Microsoft Word that I would later cut and paste.  By cut and paste, I mean scissors and wax onto camera-ready full newspaper-size sheets.

I got my first email address in 1999, just prior to opening the main office of Jewell Real Estate Agency.  A year later we purchased three more computers for our new branch office, run by my broker wife Joyce.  While my wife jumped into the computer age with vigor, I still hung around on the outskirts.  She was busy inputting data on our website, local MLS, and many other websites used to sell real estate.  I stuck to writing material and articles into Word, then letting her cut and paste them (yes, computer cut and paste this time) into our various advertising venues.

Now as the “ought decade” comes to a close, I write a blog regularly and I do my research on many topics on the Internet.  Wikipedia is great, and I can read online the newspapers from the many places I’ve lived.  I’ve even abandoned the Weather Channel on TV for Weather Underground on the Internet.  And I can get instant sports scores.  Yee-haa!

But that’s where I draw the line.

I don’t even know what a BlackBerry is, nor an iPod.  I don’t own a DVD player or DVR, and in fact don’t know the difference, if there is one.  I don’t Facebook or Twitter or YouTube or Wii.  Heck, the last video game I played was Pacman on a Commodore 64, circa 1984.

And don’t even think of sending me a text message.  I don’t know how to read one or write one.  The only thing I can do is delete the one you sent me, unopened.  If you have something important to tell me, pick up the phone.  I do answer the phone.

I don’t have a GPS.  I’m a guy.  I use a map, or else I’ll Mapquest first and compare it to my real live map.  Okay, I do have a radar detector in my vehicle.  That baby has saved me a lot of bucks, not to mention points on my license.

While I’m ranting, I don’t have tattoos and I think they’re degrading (spelled S-T-U-P-I-D).  Same with piercings.  I don’t watch reality shows – never.  My TV is never tuned to ABC, CBS, NBC or Fox.  I watch nature shows, movies, and occasionally college sports.  Don’t even think I’d watch the Simpsons or Beavis & Butthead.  I don’t do Pay-Per-View and I don’t download movies or music. 

Also, I’ve never been in a Starbucks.  I don’t have (or need) a life coach.  I think cougars are desperate.  And what’s this thing all the “under 30s” are doing with holding up different fingers?  Does that mean something?

One last thing.  You’ll never see me going around with one of those Mr. Spock things in my ear.  What’s with that?  I own three businesses and I’m a successful author, yet I hardly think I’m so important as to walk around needing 24/7 instant access to my phone. 

Okay, I’m done.  I feel better now. 

You can perhaps see why they call me the Mountain Man.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

But should their job be iffy, it’s better to sit this one out.  Why buy a vacation home if in the next year it becomes too much of a financial burden and they end up in foreclosure.  Not only will their credit be ruined, but their shore experience will leave a lasting negative impression and they may never enter the second home market again, even in good times.

Their are currently 15.4 million unemployed Americans and the jobless rate is hovering around 10%.  As always, these numbers do not include folks who have literally given up on ever getting a job and dropped out of the work force.  A record 5.9 million Americans have been out of work at least a half year as 7 million jobs have disappeared since the recession began.

The normal unemployment rate is about 5.5%.  Experts expect that the rate won’t return to that range until 2015 or so.  Job creation is the key.  In the last 10 years, from 1999 to 2009, the net gain in jobs is only about a half million, thanks to the loss of those 7 million jobs.  The previous 10 years, 1989 to 1999, saw 21 million jobs created.

Another factor in the job market is that many Baby Boomers are not retiring, but instead are staying in the work force in order to afford to live more comfortably.  This leaves the younger and less-skilled workers on the short end of the stick.

So what to do? 

The federal government needs to create jobs.  The recent infusion of money into infrastructure, mostly highways, really didn’t employ that many people.  Material costs – asphalt, concrete, steel, heavy equipment, etc. – ate up much of that cash infusion. 

Roosevelt had his Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), which pulled many through the depression by creating labor-intensive jobs (meaning more people than machines).  Why not get something like that rolling, where people of all skill levels can clean up roadsides, do much-needed maintenance work at state and national parks, thin underbrush in the forest fire-prone West.

Let’s prioritize solar, wind, and water power, offering generous subsidies and tax breaks to companies that manufacture and install these alternative power sources.  And let’s clean up urban blight, by demolishing abandoned buildings and clearing vacant lots.  That could be followed by building urban housing – but not “housing projects” – that would not only create jobs but upgrade people’s living standards.

When the government coordinates with private enterprises to create jobs, our economy will turn around in a heartbeat.  It’s that simple.  Are we asking for too much?

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Being a second home market, our yearly calendar of sales activity is fairly predictable.  By that I mean that just like a school year starts and ends around the same time each year and school vacations are scheduled about the same weeks each year, our business also has regular busy and quiet times.

Our real estate market usually cools off each year about 10 days before Thanksgiving and that semi-hibernation lasts through New Years Day.  That’s a time when local realtors takes cruises and warm weather vacations or work shorter days and cut to a minimum of floor time.  In the past, some real estate agencies even closed from Christmas Eve through January 1st, though not us.

Because that six week period is fairly predictable, any decrease or increase in potential buyer volume is a good barometer of the condition of our local real estate market.  We can gauge fairly accurately what type of year we are about to have by how many email and phone inquiries, plus walk-in traffic, we get during that time period.  It’s sorta like the Groundhog predicting more winter or not, if you get my drift.

Which brings us to this year’s prognostication. 

We were busier than usual leading right up to Thanksgiving Day, then the trend continued right up through Christmas Eve.  The day after Christmas (yesterday), the phone and email inquiries were brisk.  We’ll be juggling property showings all week long.  Hurray!

While perhaps not very scientific, our real estate business indicator is predicting a good 2010.  What more can we ask?

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Dave is hired by White House bigwigs as a one-time only stand-in for President Bill Mitchell, who has identical looks.  When the President has a paralyzing stroke, the White House chief of staff retains Dave to impersonate the President to keep the political power in his court.

As Dave assumes the role of the President, he increasingly realizes that he can do much good for America and his humor and vitality energizes the country.  After Dave and Mrs. Mitchell, played by Weaver, visit a homeless shelter that has a surprising number of kids as clients, Dave is touched.  He is soon shocked to learn that the chief of staff removed a $650 million  portion of the federal budget that was designated to fund homeless shelters.  Mrs. Mitchell, who already hates her husband, is really upset.

Long story short, Dave rolls up his sleeves and really assumes the position of President instead of being a puppet stand-in.  He eliminates fluff from the budget in restoring the $650 million homeless shelter funds.  Now Mrs. Mitchell realizes that Dave is not her real husband, and together they conspire to change America for the better.  Dave announces a plan to “give a job to every American who wants one.”

And that’s why I would like to be Dave for a month or so, just like in the movie.  A common man got a chance to make a difference, to cut through the government bureaucracy of patronage and waste.  To restore American’s faith in America, to bring common sense and doing what is right back to Washington, DC.

The movie was pure fantasy.  But the dream of giving back our country to the everyday person and being led by someone with compassion and common sense is too much to ignore.  It’s the way things should be.

Don’t you agree?

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

I’m a perfect example.  I’m not a Christian.  I don’t buy Christmas gifts or have a Christmas tree.  Bah humbug.  The materialism of Christmas turned me off nearly a half century ago.  And a lifelong examination of my religious beliefs and the religious philosophies of the world has pretty much made me conclude that I’m perhaps an atheist.

But I am blessed with a great wife, who happens to be my best friend and business partner.  Her unbridled enthusiasm for Christmas makes that a time of year that I especially appreciate all she’s done for me and all that she means to me.

I recall a quote, “Love is the soul’s recognition of its counterpoint in another.”  That wraps up my feelings toward our special relationship.

So I ask on this Christmas day that you not dwell on what things you did or didn’t find under your Christmas tree.  Instead, think longingly of the ones you love.  For it is that love that carries you through the other 364 days of the year.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainmanandCityGirl.com

Fannie CEO Michael Williams and Freddie CEO Ed Haldeman each received $900,000 in salary and another $3.1 million in salary with payments deferred to 2010.  That’s $4 million apiece.  Each also is eligible for another $2 million in performance incentives.  Considering that Fannie and Freddie needed a combined $111 billion, yes billion, in federal bailout money, one wonders exactly what their performance bonus was contingent upon.  Perfect attendance?  Turning their homework in on time?  Spelling their names correctly?

The argument by their cheerleaders is that the former CEO’s of the two companies, who were both fired in September, 2008 when the bailout money was proposed, made a lot more money.  The Fannie CEO received $10.2 million in 2008 and the Freddie guy nailed $13.1 million.  It practically took an act of Congress to stop them from awarding themselves another combined $24 million in termination pay.

The case for Williams and Haldeman continues that each would command up to $10 million in yearly pay in the private sector.  The argument typically concludes with, “No one else would do the job for less money.”

Bullfeathers!

I’ll do the job for one year for a measly $500,000.  I’ll move to Washington, DC for one year, rent a condo, and work 365 straight days.  A lot of qualified people would do the same thing.  And I’ll donate $100,000 of that money to DC soup kitchens for the homeless.  That would make my take home pay about $250,000.  Not extravagant, but fair!

I really get tired of hearing how top company management and all government workers – federal, state, and municipal – feel justified in making a lot more money than their small business and working stiff counterparts because, “No one else would take this job.”  And the benefits they receive, including health insurance and retirement packages, are way beyond reasonable and equitable.

Is anybody mad yet?

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

The state’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, on behalf of Christie’s transition team, sent out a three page memo via email to all state department heads.  It warned of three upcoming scenarios: a cut to their operating budgets of either 15%, 20%, or 25% in the upcoming new year.

In a state with an anticipated $8 billion budget shortfall, those cuts in real dollars equal $3.8 billion, $5.1 billion, or $6.4 billion.  And departments can’t achieve their cuts by shifting payments on outstanding debt.  It has to be tangible cuts to services and labor force.  All this means no magic tricks, no slight of hand.  Also, cost-of-living (COL) increases will not be automatic.

Department heads have until January 6th to make their initial recommendations for budget cuts.  Meanwhile, groups who receive state funding are sweating out the results.  Everyone is going to lose something.  But it has to be that way.

Congratulations to Governor-elect Christie for not keeping the status quo.  To use a quote made famous nearly 60 years ago, “Give ‘em hell, Harry!”

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

The tried and true banking tradition is that banks took deposits from customers, paying a certain interest rate, then lent money to borrowers at a higher rate.  The difference in the interest rates was their profit.

The model has changed since the number of bank failures rose from three in 2007 and 25 in 2008 to 140 in 2009. 

Banks are now borrowing at near-zero percent interest rates to get short term loans for themselves and putting the money into Treasury notes and other higher-yielding government securities.  They make a profit with no risk (unless the United States collapses).  This practice is called playing the yield curve, or carry trade.

Loans given out to consumers and businesses in America have dropped 8% in the last year.  The banks claim that less people want loans.  Our experience as realtors tells us a different story.  We’re seeing people with solid credit and income getting turned down for loans in this vacation home market here at the South Jersey shore.  At our agency, we’ve put a lot more properties in 2009 “under contract” than in 2008, but we’ve closed on fewer than last year.

Right now only FHA-backed loans, which account for 30% of home loans compared to just 3% in 2006, seem a sure thing.  Loans for second homes and businesses are tough to obtain.  Banks literally want no risk when giving a mortgage.

When the economy finishes turning around and businesses begin hiring, maybe banks will feel comfortable again lending money.  Until then, many realtors and consumers will have to continue treading water.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com