Archive for the ‘Real Estate’ Category

New Jersey Entices Solar

Tuesday, January 5th, 2010

New Jersey has the reputation of being one of the most business-unfriendly of the 50 United States.  It’s well deserved.  They did it the old-fashioned way – they earned it!

But solar power is the exception.  New Jersey is mandated by the state’s Energy Master Plan to provide 20 percent of its energy through renewable sources by 2020.  To reach that lofty goal just 10 years away, the state is offering monetary incentives to get it done.  And alternative energy providers are lining up to cash in.

The state set up a system whereby solar systems – whether at a private residence or a commercial site – can earn Solar Renewable Energy Certificates.  Each 1,000 kilowatt hours of energy produced earns the provider one credit.  These credits are currently selling for just under $700 apiece.

The buyers of these energy credits are the utility companies, which are the ones under the gun to supply 20 percent renewable energy.  If a utility doesn’t meet the 2020 goal, they will be penalized with a Solar Alternative Compliance Payment.  So if they’re going to shell out the bucks anyway, why not go solar?  It’s good public relations and reduces dependency on coal, oil, etc and their associated price fluctuations.

There are currently over 50 renewable energy projects on the drawing board in New Jersey.  As more farmers and large landholders become aware of this new income source, more and more projects will be planned in the Garden State.  The key is for the solar farm to be located near high transmission lines, which makes getting the electricity they produce easier and less costly to get on the grid.  And besides getting paid via the credit system, the providers also get the current rate per kilowatt.  It’s win-win.

There is one caution to anyone thinking about having solar panels installed at their property.  Since this is a fairly new and lucrative business, a lot of inexperienced and unqualified companies are looking to install your solar system.  Like anything, get quotes from at least three companies and ask for references and about projects they have already completed.  Be careful and choose wisely.  After all, this is New Jersey!

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Distressed Properties Affecting Appraisals

Tuesday, January 5th, 2010

There are typically three main issues that can stop a potential real estate transaction dead in its tracks – the home inspection, the mortgage approval, and the appraisal.  Let’s talk about appraisals.

The problem with appraisals in today’s real estate market is that properties sold via a short sale, sheriff sale, or foreclosure are being used as comparables when evaluating the price of a regular home.  About 25% of realtors have had a sale fall apart because of a low appraisal.  The National Association of Home Builders reported that 25% of their new home sales likewise were shot down by low appraisals.

In 2009, over one third of all home sales nationwide were either foreclosures or short sales.  A short sale, of course, is when a lender let’s the property sell for less than the amount of the loan, figuring its better to unload the property quickly, get some cash, and move on.  These properties, on average, are selling for about 25% less than a property not in distress.

In an appraisal, the appraiser uses an approach in determining value by comparing similar recently sold properties in the same area.  Allowances are made for differences, such as more or less bedrooms, a detached garage, swimming pool, etc.  In a normal real estate market, where foreclosures are rare and short sales nearly unheard of, this is an effective method to determine true value.

But in today’s topsy turvy real estate market, appraisals show no differentiation in a distressed sale vs non-distressed sale.  And therein lies the problem.  They are, after all, two different markets.  And so, the family that always paid their mortgage is being penalized because their property is being weighed down by those that didn’t or couldn’t handle their financial responsibilities.  Is that fair?

Buyers attempting to purchase a conventional property nowadays basically have three options when the appraisal comes in under the agreed upon price.  Either make up the difference in cash, get the buyer to lower his price, or do a cash-only deal (using a home equity if necessary).

Until the real estate world returns to normal, “appraisal” will continue to be a four-letter word to realtors, builders, buyers, and sellers.  Let’s hope the end is near.

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

No Repeat of Bubble Burst?

Monday, January 4th, 2010

As the United States slowly pulls itself out of the depths of the recession, many still wonder how it happened and whether it can happen again?  Good questions, and the answers all have to do in some way with real estate.

The biggest cause of the housing bubble was that the Federal Reserve and then chairman Alan Greenspan did not recognize what was happening soon enough.  But they took the course that seemed logical at the time and, after all, hindsight is 20-20. 

On the heels of the September 11 attacks, the Wall Street scandals, and the 2001 recession, the Fed felt that low interest rates were needed to get the economy rolling and to create jobs. And it did.  However, housing prices started to escalate at the same time and by 2003 they took off.  Here in Cape May County, New Jersey housing prices were rising 3% per month in 2004 and part of 2005.  That lasted for a year and a half as speculators bought everything in sight at interest rates in the 5 to 6 1/2% range.

The prices kept rising during that period because, let’s face it, few thought that they would stop going up.  Lenders and appraisers bought into the same scenario, so everyone just kept doing business as usual and moving the market along.  Folks got mortgages based on real estate values continuing to rise.  When they stagnated, then dropped, many got caught with their pants down.

Now as Ben Bernanke is up for his second term as Fed chief, the focus seems to be not so much on simply more regulations, but on more effective and smarter regulations to keep from another period of real estate speculation.  Through recent experience, the decision-makers are hopefully aware and prepared the next time that our economic freight train is in danger of running away.

Interest rates are still near historic lows and expected to stay that way, at least in the short term.  That has to be balanced with the threat of inflation, which would result in another possible recession.  We’ll have to see what the future holds.  We’ve got our fingers crossed.

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

A Common Sense Solution

Monday, January 4th, 2010

The little borough of West Cape May, like other towns in New Jersey, has to provide affordable housing thanks to the Mt. Laurel decision back in the late 1970′s.  But unlike most municipalities, West Cape May has come up with a novel plan that is offering incentives and fewer building restrictions.

The Council on Affordable Housing (COAH) was created out of that controversial court ruling that mandated a required number of low and moderate income units for each of New Jersey’s 566 municipalities.  West Cape May needs to provide just two units by 2018, but they’re offering breaks for those creating the first 10.

Called “accessory apartments”, they can be in garages, above stores, in existing homes, or even new construction, as long as they’re in an area of the town where public sewer and water already exist.  No planning board approval would be necessary, just the usual construction permits.  The landlord would have to sign an agreement stipulating that the unit be rented below the market rate for 15 years.  But the town’s $25,000 to $75,000 incentive would help make up the difference.  After 15 years, the landlord is free to charge the usual market rate.

The borough will create a pool of tenants after determining their eligilibility based on income.  Landlords can ban smoking or pets or such, and do criminal backgrounds and credit checks, plus charge a security deposit.  The rent can’t be raised as unless a tenant leaves and a new one moves in.

In an expensive shore resort area like the Cape Mays, rentals are beyond the financial scope of many young families.  City officials hope that this will allow more to stay in the area and not move on to less pricey locales.

While West Cape May is just two units short of its COAH goal, two other Cape May County municipalities have a rougher road ahead.  Middle Township is mandated to provide 934 units and Upper Township 566 by 2018.  That would overcrowd the schools and burden the two towns’ services, not to mention the added real estate property taxes that residents would be forced to shoulder.  The towns have minimal areas of infrastructure and over 50% of each municipality is either federal, state or preserved land and not buildable.  Providing this absurd number of units definitely would promote sprawl and change the character of the towns.

Perhaps Governor-elect Christopher Christie, who has spoken out against COAH, will do something to abolish this forced build-up of semi-rural communities.

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

A Realtor’s Sad Day

Sunday, January 3rd, 2010

Being a realtor has many rewards other than financial.  There’s nothing like finding a young couple their first home, helping them navigate through the various stages of buying a property that are still so alien to the inexperienced.  They’re thankful for everything along the way and often we become lifelong friends.

Here in Cape May County at the southern tip of New Jersey, we sell primarily vacation homes.  For many families that have worked hard their entire life, finally being able to afford this second home at the shore is the fulfillment of a dream.  We sell dreams.  It feels sooo good.

But there is another scenario for a realtor that is not so pleasing.  In fact, it is sad.

Here at Jewell Real Estate Agency, we have had several occasions where we have sold a home for an elderly person and moved them directly into an assisted living home.

Two of my favorites ladies were Helen Smith and Clara Carr.  Mrs. Smith – as I called her out of respect and she called me Mr. Jewell – had lived in the same single family home in Wildwood since 1953.  When I first met her and listed her home in 2005, her husband had been deceased for over 15 years.  He had built the home himself – with a small apartment over top – and Mrs. Smith was proud of her property, as she should.  The craftsmanship was nice, though the property was obviously outdated.

After a few months, we put the property “under contract”.  In 60 days, Mrs. Smith would be leaving the only home she’d known for over a half century.  She was upset, but knew that she was no longer physically able to maintain the property.  With no relatives close by, I offered to move the belongings she was keeping to the assisted living facility 12 miles away.  She was relieved and gave me a big hug.  We each had a tear in one eye.

When the big day came, I brought along two of my maintenance guys and two pickup trucks.  We moved her bed, favorite bureau and stuffed chair, an end table or two, and the few boxes of clothes and such that she had so carefully packed.  Her family had come from out of state to pick through her possessions and take what they wanted, so we then packed everything else in the house and took several loads to drop off at a charity.

We got Mrs. Smith settled into her new room on the second floor of the facility, patiently placing each piece of furniture and possessions exactly where she wanted them.  “A little to the left,” the 90-year old would request.  No problem.  I promised to visit her, then left.

Clara – she called me Doug – and I had history.  A few years prior she was still on top of her game and sharp as a pin.  We had belonged to an environmental group together and stood on picket lines holding protest signs.  Nothing stopped Clara.  She was right there along with the rest of us.

We sold Clara’s house in 2003.  She was being pressured by a daughter to come live with them in another state.  It was hard to say goodbye to my 75-year old friend and comrade.  It was also hard to see her give up most of her lifelong possessions knowing she would be limited to one room of space in her daughter’s house.

And so, a week after moving Mrs. Smith to the assisted living facility I returned for a visit  to see how she was making out.  We hugged and talked for an hour about her new home and the world in general.  Then she said, “By the way, I ate lunch with a friend of yours the other day.”  It was Clara.  I was dumbfounded.

A few minutes later I was knocking on Clara’s door down the hall.  We hugged and had a tearful reunion.  It turns out that living with her daughter didn’t work out, so having no other options she moved to this facility to be back in her hometown.  We talked for a couple hours and Clara hadn’t lost a beat.  She was still totally together in mind and body.

And so a couple years passed.  I would visit Mrs. Smith and Clara around Christmas and a couple other times a year.  Then one visit I discovered that Clara had recently had a stroke and her speech was difficult to understand.  Still, we were both all smiles seeing each other.

On my last visit, in 2008, I sat with Mrs. Smith first and we talked and talked.  I mentioned that I was going to see Clara next, but she warned me that Clara had gone downhill lately.  “Don’t be surprised if she doesn’t recognize you,” she said.  She was right.  Clara was totally confused when I entered her room and didn’t recognize me.  She might have even been a little afraid of this stranger.  I left, disheartened by the loss of my friend.

Mrs. Smith died two months later.  At 93, she was still mentally on point right up to the end.

It makes me sad to think of the loss of my two friends.  But because of being a realtor I had the opportunity to really get to know these wonderful ladies.  I cherish our memories.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Good Realtors have Passion

Saturday, January 2nd, 2010

Like all our fellow realtors, we know that there are all different calibers of realtors.  But when you really think about it, what makes a certain percentage of realtors stand above the crowd is PASSION.

My wife Joyce and I opened our first office in 2000, then 10 months later opened a branch office.  Later this month will mark the 10th anniversary of us working six days a week – we try to take Wednesdays off together but often spend half the day on our cell phones – and answering our phones 6am to 9pm every day of the year.  Yes, I know what you’re thinking.  We must be crazy to be accessible 15 hours a day, right? 

But, you see, real estate is our life, our passion.  Our kids are grown and gone and now we have the freedom of a 20-something childless couple, although our combined ages is 120.  To avoid being kicked in the shins, I won’t say which one of us is older.

We are both early risers, so having our cell phones unplugged and turned on by 6:00 in the morning is no problem.  We find that many of our clients, stuck in rush hour traffic around Philly or NYC, make use of this time to call us and discuss the transaction we’re working on together or the properties they want to tour on the weekend.

Nighttime phone calls don’t crimp our lifestyle either.  Okay, we may be in the grocery store or a restaurant, but we’ve closed deals standing next to the broccoli and cauliflower display.  Our norm, however, is that we’re sitting on the couch together watching a cable movie or nature program.  Folks like to call us around that time after they’ve put their kids to bed and they finally have some quiet time.

In the warm weather months when the daylight hours last longer, we do have one other distraction in the evenings.  We jump in my pickup truck, select a town, and cruise up and down neighborhood streets seeing “what’s new”.  We notice new construction and homes newly put up for sale.  We talk about it like two excited teenagers.  And since the weather is warm, families are outside in their yards and we wave and our real estate signs on the truck doors get noticed.  More than once someone has waved us down to talk about the current real estate market.  That’s social networking in its purest form, I guess.

I know there are many, many other realtors across the country with passion for their trade.  Obviously, any realtor who takes the time to read and contribute regularly to Active Rain has that passion.  So do those who read the real estate trade magazines from cover to cover.  And those continually participating in some sort of continuing education and earning additional designations.

To all of you, I tip my hat.  Together, we’ve taken real estate sales from being a job to a profession we’re proud of.  And love.

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

A Changing World

Thursday, December 31st, 2009

When I was a youngster, I thought everything always stayed the same.  I thought the corner general store would always be there and always be called Percy’s.  The same for Al’s Barber Shop, and the same for Green’s Luncheonette and Woolworths and the A&P.  I was naive and too young to understand the evolution of change.

Then reality began to set in. First, the knifeman no longer drove up and down the neighborhood streets with a familiar bell ringing on the back of his truck.  Mom would send me running to flag him down and she’d follow with a basket full of kitchen knives to be sharpened.  A few years later there was a note in the milk box saying that Sicomac Dairy would no longer be delivering milk, eggs, sour cream, etc to our door.  About the same time the local dry cleaner also stopped doing home deliveries.  What was the world coming to?

Change continued through my teens and twenties.  I used to peddle my bicycle delivering the Bergen Evening Record newspaper every afternoon after school.  They became a morning newspaper, following an industry trend, and next thing you know newspaper home delivery was done by adults in cars at 5am.  Yikes!

My next job was as a caddy at a golf course.  We made $2.75 for carrying a golf bag 18 holes, and $5.50 if we were big enough to carry two bags for 18 holes.  With tip, that came to $6 for about five hours work.  I was on top of the world and “rich” compared to my fellow high schoolers.  But you know where this story is going.  Within a decade, caddies were as extinct as dinosaurs.  Golf carts put us out of business.  The end of an era.

With all these experiences in my rear view mirror, allow me to gaze into my crystal ball and look into the future.  The biggest change I see is in the world of retail stores.

 

The internet is going to decrease the number of retail stores.  We’re already seeing it in the demise of such venues as movie rentals – adios Blockbuster – and music stores.  The internet allows you to download movies and music from the comfort of your home.  And heck, just about every new movie is on cable within six months anyway, so why not wait?

Stores that sell appliances will be the next victim.  Just ask Circuit City or Linens ’n Things.  Circuit City had 576 big box stores and Linen ‘n Things had 571.  All their stores are now shuddered and they sell, yes, on the internet only.  Who’d a thunk it?

Just about any store that sells things that are also readily available on the internet is in trouble.  The exception, of course, is things you need to touch or try on first.  I’m not gonna buy shoes or pants from the internet.  I need to try them on to make sure the fit is just right.  And I want to physically see some items before purchasing to make sure they are of sufficient quality.  A picture on the internet doesn’t relay the quality.

Stores that cater to “touch and try on” and large selection will survive, like WalMart and Target and Costco and such, because high volume of sales will carry them.  But smaller stores, not to mention Mom & Pop’s, are in trouble.  The cost of rent and utilities and inventory and employees makes them unprofitable, or at least not worth the bother.

Look around.  I’m sure you’ve noticed how many empty storefronts are in your community.  Nationally, the vacancy rate for retail stores is about 7% and malls is nearly 10%.  It seems like more.  Expect those numbers to increase.

But all’s not lost.  Restaurants will survive and thrive.  In fact, anything related to food will stay around.  Who buys a hamburger or a cantelope on the internet?  Doctors, dentists, lawyers, realtors, accountants and other similar occupations will continue to occupy a physical space in the community.  So will hardware stores and lumber yards and florists and other “drop in and buy quick” businesses.

Thanks to internet sales, a good bet on the future would be to buy stock in FedEx, or UPS, and any other delivery company.  Hey, wait.  Haven’t we just gone full circle?

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Just a Feeling

Wednesday, December 30th, 2009

As realtors, we often get hunches about our own individual local real estate market, whether it’s Monterrey, California or Baton Rouge, Louisiana or Bangor, Maine. 

Here at Jewell Real Estate Agency, we have a feeling about 2010.  A strong feeling.  All the pieces seem to be falling into place that 2010 is going to be a great year.  The best since 2005.

Our local real estate market is Cape May County, a small tourist-oriented county at the very southern tip of New Jersey.  While we have just 96,000 yearround residents, the summer population swells to 750,000 or more on any given day.  Our beautiful Atlantic Ocean beaches and back bays and famous boardwalks attract vacationers from Philadelphia and eastern Pennsylvania; New York City and the surrounding areas of northern New Jersey, southwestern Connecticut, and New York state; plus some fun-seekers from Maryland,Washington, DC and eastern Canada.

We almost exclusively sell vacation homes – including condos and townhomes - and multifamily homes, with an occasional commercial property.  We sell a few primary homes each year, mostly off the islands on the mainland.  There just isn’t a great demand.  The seasonality of our location makes us unattractive to yearround living for a young family just getting started.  There just isn’t enough yearround employment to suit their needs, so the younger generation tends to migrate toward the Philadelphia area and its jobs.  The primary homes we do sell are mostly to retirees looking to enjoy the quiet shore life, plus the restaurants, fishing, and attractions of Cape May, the Wildwoods, and even Atlantic City 35 miles to the north.

So back to the countdown to 2010. 

We are already showing properties every day, a phenomenon lacking over Christmas break the last two years.  Joyce wrote two contracts yesterday – both accepted – and we’ve got plenty of showings today and tomorrow, right up to New Year’s Eve.

People seem eager to buy right now.  There’s an enthusiasm amongst prospective buyers that has replaced the overall reluctance evident in 2007 through the first half of 2009.  Maybe it’s the low interest rates or the bargain basement prices of real estate.  Maybe it’s that folks are tired of sitting on the sidelines and putting off buying that American dream second home.  Or perhaps it’s because many in the media have given the green light to purchasing real estate and abandoned their doom and gloom prophecies.

Whatever the reason, we have a bounce in our step and a twinkle in our eyes.  The new year looks very promising.  I think I’ll stick a bottle of champagne under the seat of my truck.  After my last property showing tomorrow afternoon, I think I’ll break out the bubbly and toast the good times ahead.  Wanna join me?

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

There’s Technology, then there’s Tech-NO-logy

Monday, December 28th, 2009

I’m stubborn, I admit it.  I have embraced modern technology, but only as far as needed to be the owner of a successful real estate agency. 

I’ve had a cell phone for 10 years, and now 85% of Americans do too, according to statistics.  Judging from my older friends, I think I personally know many of the 15% who don’t.

I bought my first computer in 1993, just months before launching my own weekly all-sports newspaper.  I didn’t know how to do much, other than type articles into Microsoft Word that I would later cut and paste.  By cut and paste, I mean scissors and wax onto camera-ready full newspaper-size sheets.

I got my first email address in 1999, just prior to opening the main office of Jewell Real Estate Agency.  A year later we purchased three more computers for our new branch office, run by my broker wife Joyce.  While my wife jumped into the computer age with vigor, I still hung around on the outskirts.  She was busy inputting data on our website, local MLS, and many other websites used to sell real estate.  I stuck to writing material and articles into Word, then letting her cut and paste them (yes, computer cut and paste this time) into our various advertising venues.

Now as the “ought decade” comes to a close, I write a blog regularly and I do my research on many topics on the Internet.  Wikipedia is great, and I can read online the newspapers from the many places I’ve lived.  I’ve even abandoned the Weather Channel on TV for Weather Underground on the Internet.  And I can get instant sports scores.  Yee-haa!

But that’s where I draw the line.

I don’t even know what a BlackBerry is, nor an iPod.  I don’t own a DVD player or DVR, and in fact don’t know the difference, if there is one.  I don’t Facebook or Twitter or YouTube or Wii.  Heck, the last video game I played was Pacman on a Commodore 64, circa 1984.

And don’t even think of sending me a text message.  I don’t know how to read one or write one.  The only thing I can do is delete the one you sent me, unopened.  If you have something important to tell me, pick up the phone.  I do answer the phone.

I don’t have a GPS.  I’m a guy.  I use a map, or else I’ll Mapquest first and compare it to my real live map.  Okay, I do have a radar detector in my vehicle.  That baby has saved me a lot of bucks, not to mention points on my license.

While I’m ranting, I don’t have tattoos and I think they’re degrading (spelled S-T-U-P-I-D).  Same with piercings.  I don’t watch reality shows – never.  My TV is never tuned to ABC, CBS, NBC or Fox.  I watch nature shows, movies, and occasionally college sports.  Don’t even think I’d watch the Simpsons or Beavis & Butthead.  I don’t do Pay-Per-View and I don’t download movies or music. 

Also, I’ve never been in a Starbucks.  I don’t have (or need) a life coach.  I think cougars are desperate.  And what’s this thing all the “under 30s” are doing with holding up different fingers?  Does that mean something?

One last thing.  You’ll never see me going around with one of those Mr. Spock things in my ear.  What’s with that?  I own three businesses and I’m a successful author, yet I hardly think I’m so important as to walk around needing 24/7 instant access to my phone. 

Okay, I’m done.  I feel better now. 

You can perhaps see why they call me the Mountain Man.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Jobs, Jobs, Jobs

Sunday, December 27th, 2009

As realtors, we have found that the main factor in whether a family can buy a second home here at the Jersey shore is job stability.  If a family has a solid income that will not be affected by a cut in salary or loss of job, they seem willing – even anxious - to take advantage of the incredibly low real estate prices and interest rates. 

But should their job be iffy, it’s better to sit this one out.  Why buy a vacation home if in the next year it becomes too much of a financial burden and they end up in foreclosure.  Not only will their credit be ruined, but their shore experience will leave a lasting negative impression and they may never enter the second home market again, even in good times.

Their are currently 15.4 million unemployed Americans and the jobless rate is hovering around 10%.  As always, these numbers do not include folks who have literally given up on ever getting a job and dropped out of the work force.  A record 5.9 million Americans have been out of work at least a half year as 7 million jobs have disappeared since the recession began.

The normal unemployment rate is about 5.5%.  Experts expect that the rate won’t return to that range until 2015 or so.  Job creation is the key.  In the last 10 years, from 1999 to 2009, the net gain in jobs is only about a half million, thanks to the loss of those 7 million jobs.  The previous 10 years, 1989 to 1999, saw 21 million jobs created.

Another factor in the job market is that many Baby Boomers are not retiring, but instead are staying in the work force in order to afford to live more comfortably.  This leaves the younger and less-skilled workers on the short end of the stick.

So what to do? 

The federal government needs to create jobs.  The recent infusion of money into infrastructure, mostly highways, really didn’t employ that many people.  Material costs – asphalt, concrete, steel, heavy equipment, etc. – ate up much of that cash infusion. 

Roosevelt had his Civilian Conservation Corps (CCC), which pulled many through the depression by creating labor-intensive jobs (meaning more people than machines).  Why not get something like that rolling, where people of all skill levels can clean up roadsides, do much-needed maintenance work at state and national parks, thin underbrush in the forest fire-prone West.

Let’s prioritize solar, wind, and water power, offering generous subsidies and tax breaks to companies that manufacture and install these alternative power sources.  And let’s clean up urban blight, by demolishing abandoned buildings and clearing vacant lots.  That could be followed by building urban housing – but not “housing projects” – that would not only create jobs but upgrade people’s living standards.

When the government coordinates with private enterprises to create jobs, our economy will turn around in a heartbeat.  It’s that simple.  Are we asking for too much?

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

A Good Barometer

Sunday, December 27th, 2009

Here at Jewell Real Estate Agency, we sell mostly vacation homes at the Jersey shore.  Condos, townhomes, single family homes – they are all elements of the dream families have of owning a second home in the Wildwoods.

Being a second home market, our yearly calendar of sales activity is fairly predictable.  By that I mean that just like a school year starts and ends around the same time each year and school vacations are scheduled about the same weeks each year, our business also has regular busy and quiet times.

Our real estate market usually cools off each year about 10 days before Thanksgiving and that semi-hibernation lasts through New Years Day.  That’s a time when local realtors takes cruises and warm weather vacations or work shorter days and cut to a minimum of floor time.  In the past, some real estate agencies even closed from Christmas Eve through January 1st, though not us.

Because that six week period is fairly predictable, any decrease or increase in potential buyer volume is a good barometer of the condition of our local real estate market.  We can gauge fairly accurately what type of year we are about to have by how many email and phone inquiries, plus walk-in traffic, we get during that time period.  It’s sorta like the Groundhog predicting more winter or not, if you get my drift.

Which brings us to this year’s prognostication. 

We were busier than usual leading right up to Thanksgiving Day, then the trend continued right up through Christmas Eve.  The day after Christmas (yesterday), the phone and email inquiries were brisk.  We’ll be juggling property showings all week long.  Hurray!

While perhaps not very scientific, our real estate business indicator is predicting a good 2010.  What more can we ask?

- Mountain Man and City Girl

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Atlantic City Gambles on Future

Saturday, December 26th, 2009

Since Atlantic City, New Jersey approved legalized gambling back in the late 1970s, the city has always been in the shadow of Las Vegas.  Everything the tarnished city did to revitalize and rebuild and build a world-class casino atmosphere drew comparisons to Vegas.  And frowns.

Meanwhile, the “Little Engine That Could” plodded on, eventually erecting 13 casinos.  The first, Resorts Atlantic City, opened in May, 1978.  A year later Caesars debuted, then in December 1979 Bally’s opened.  The Sands, Harrahs and the Hilton each opened in the latter half of 1980 and the Playboy Casino and Tropicana were ready for business in late 1981.   Atlantic City now had eight casinos.

 The recession of the early 1980s (sound familiar) halted construction while prospective casino companies sat out the downturn and waited for the economy to get going again.

Trump Plaza got things moving again, opening in May, 1984, then Trump Marina debuted a year later.  The Showboat opened in 1987 and the Trump Taj Mahal in 1990 and then new construction came to a halt.  Time to once again wait for better times.

In 2003, the first modern mega-casino, the Borgata, opened to grand revues and it continues to this day to be the top earner in the city.  The Playboy Club Casino, of course, has long since been closed, then torn down. 

The Sands was torned down in 2007 by Pinnacle Entertainment after purchasing the obsolete casino and its 20 Boardwalk/oceanfront acres for $400 million.  Pinnacle has not begun construction and the company refuses to comment if the $1.5 billion megaresort will ever be built.

Meanwhile, MGM and Boyd Entertainment purchased a 72-acre lot next to the Borgata, envisioning a 3,000 hotel room, 280,000 square foot casino resort to be called the MGM Mirage.  Plans for that project are “on hold” until the economy improves and funding becomes available.

One new Atlantic City hotel casino, the Revel, is about two-thirds through the construction phase.  They broke ground in November, 2007, but in January, 2009 had to lay off 400 workers, leaving 500 to get the steel work and exterior completed.  They need another $1 billion in funding to finish the $2.5 billion project, which is still hopefully scheduled to open in the summer of 2011.  The Revel is 53 stories high, with 1,800 rooms, 20 restaurants, 40 retail stores, and a 5,000-seat theater, plus 150,000 square feet of gambling.

Atlantic City reacted to gambling being legalized in many more states by improving its non-gambling options for visitors.  Shopping opportunities within walking distance of the casinos include the 27-store The Quarter, The Walk with 47 stores, and the Piers at Caesars with over 50 stores.

However, the approval of gambling in Pennsylvania poses a new threat.  The casinos in AC once employed 40,000 people, but that’s now down to 36,000.  Gambling competition also comes from nearby Delaware, New York, and the Indian casinos in Connecticut.

Atlantic City must once again reinvent itself.  The more non-gaming options the better.  The city owns 140-acre Bader Field, a former small airport, just outside of town but practically in the shadow of the casinos.  Maybe a theme park or something similar is the answer.  Whatever, it has to be a FAMILY destination.

If the casinos are to prosper, they must break their long-standing tradition of not supporting anything outside walking distance of their establishments.  Minor league baseball didn’t fly, and pro hockey and basketball were also financial flops.  The casinos must get behind some sort of grand family entertainment at Bader Field.  If not, their market share will continue to drop and Atlantic City, within a four hour drive of 30 million people, will be the punchline of many a joke.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

I Wanna Be ‘Dave’

Saturday, December 26th, 2009

You probably have seen the 1993 movie Dave, which starred Kevin Kline and Sigourney Weaver.  To refresh your memory, Kline plays Dave Kovic, an unassuming and likable man who heads a “temp” agency in Ohio.

Dave is hired by White House bigwigs as a one-time only stand-in for President Bill Mitchell, who has identical looks.  When the President has a paralyzing stroke, the White House chief of staff retains Dave to impersonate the President to keep the political power in his court.

As Dave assumes the role of the President, he increasingly realizes that he can do much good for America and his humor and vitality energizes the country.  After Dave and Mrs. Mitchell, played by Weaver, visit a homeless shelter that has a surprising number of kids as clients, Dave is touched.  He is soon shocked to learn that the chief of staff removed a $650 million  portion of the federal budget that was designated to fund homeless shelters.  Mrs. Mitchell, who already hates her husband, is really upset.

Long story short, Dave rolls up his sleeves and really assumes the position of President instead of being a puppet stand-in.  He eliminates fluff from the budget in restoring the $650 million homeless shelter funds.  Now Mrs. Mitchell realizes that Dave is not her real husband, and together they conspire to change America for the better.  Dave announces a plan to “give a job to every American who wants one.”

And that’s why I would like to be Dave for a month or so, just like in the movie.  A common man got a chance to make a difference, to cut through the government bureaucracy of patronage and waste.  To restore American’s faith in America, to bring common sense and doing what is right back to Washington, DC.

The movie was pure fantasy.  But the dream of giving back our country to the everyday person and being led by someone with compassion and common sense is too much to ignore.  It’s the way things should be.

Don’t you agree?

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

A Christmas Blessing

Friday, December 25th, 2009

Everyone is blessed at Christmas, whether they are aware of it or not.  And you don’t have to be a Christian for Christmas to have an effect on your spirituality.

I’m a perfect example.  I’m not a Christian.  I don’t buy Christmas gifts or have a Christmas tree.  Bah humbug.  The materialism of Christmas turned me off nearly a half century ago.  And a lifelong examination of my religious beliefs and the religious philosophies of the world has pretty much made me conclude that I’m perhaps an atheist.

But I am blessed with a great wife, who happens to be my best friend and business partner.  Her unbridled enthusiasm for Christmas makes that a time of year that I especially appreciate all she’s done for me and all that she means to me.

I recall a quote, “Love is the soul’s recognition of its counterpoint in another.”  That wraps up my feelings toward our special relationship.

So I ask on this Christmas day that you not dwell on what things you did or didn’t find under your Christmas tree.  Instead, think longingly of the ones you love.  For it is that love that carries you through the other 364 days of the year.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainmanandCityGirl.com

More Banker Greed

Friday, December 25th, 2009

Joining their fellow banking CEO cohorts, the heads of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac were approved for $6 million in pay each for 2009.  Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, to refresh your memory, purchase bundles of mortgages to ensure that money is always available to lending institutions which give loans to homebuyers.  They are quasi-private companies backed by the federal government.

Fannie CEO Michael Williams and Freddie CEO Ed Haldeman each received $900,000 in salary and another $3.1 million in salary with payments deferred to 2010.  That’s $4 million apiece.  Each also is eligible for another $2 million in performance incentives.  Considering that Fannie and Freddie needed a combined $111 billion, yes billion, in federal bailout money, one wonders exactly what their performance bonus was contingent upon.  Perfect attendance?  Turning their homework in on time?  Spelling their names correctly?

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The argument by their cheerleaders is that the former CEO’s of the two companies, who were both fired in September, 2008 when the bailout money was proposed, made a lot more money.  The Fannie CEO received $10.2 million in 2008 and the Freddie guy nailed $13.1 million.  It practically took an act of Congress to stop them from awarding themselves another combined $24 million in termination pay.

The case for Williams and Haldeman continues that each would command up to $10 million in yearly pay in the private sector.  The argument typically concludes with, “No one else would do the job for less money.”

Bullfeathers!

I’ll do the job for one year for a measly $500,000.  I’ll move to Washington, DC for one year, rent a condo, and work 365 straight days.  A lot of qualified people would do the same thing.  And I’ll donate $100,000 of that money to DC soup kitchens for the homeless.  That would make my take home pay about $250,000.  Not extravagant, but fair!

I really get tired of hearing how top company management and all government workers – federal, state, and municipal – feel justified in making a lot more money than their small business and working stiff counterparts because, “No one else would take this job.”  And the benefits they receive, including health insurance and retirement packages, are way beyond reasonable and equitable.

Is anybody mad yet?

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Developers Can Get it Right

Thursday, December 24th, 2009

The legendary battles between developers and environmentalists are well documented, but the two aren’t always polar opposites.  The Tejon Ranch is a good example of the two marrying and having a happy ending.

Tejon Ranch is the largest private land holding in California, measuring around 270,000 acres, or over 400 square miles.  The massive Kern County tract had not been viewed by the public for 140 years.  The property is located along the main north-south route on the West Coast, Interstate 5, situated 60 miles north of Los Angeles and 30 miles south of Bakersfield.  It is at the confluence of four ecosystems – the Mojave Desert, Sierra Nevada Mountains, Central Valley, and South Coast, so it is a wildlife corridor of magnificent proportions.

Last May, the Tejon Ranch Company penned an agreement with five of the most important environmental groups – including the Sierra Club and Audubon Society – to set aside permanently 90% of the property.  So far, 178,000 acres have been established as Open Space or a conservancy, with an option on 62,000 acres more at fair market value.

What the Tejon Ranch gets is the unhindered ability to develop part of the remaining land, which is all located along I-5 at the western edge of the ranch.  They already have tenants in parts of the 1,450-acre Tejon Industrial Complex, including IKEA with a 1.7 million square foot warehouse.  Oneida and Famous Footwear also call the complex home.

Tejon Mountain Village, which developers hope will eventually contain 23,000 homes and 70,000 people in 18.4 square miles of newly-hatched city, was just approved October 5th by the Kern County Board of Supervisors.  There will also be resorts and golf courses, plus hiking and equestrian trails in this “environmentally sensitive mountain resort community”.

 

Within the preserved portions of Tejon Ranch the bears, bobcats, mountain lions, pronghorn antelope, and more will be able to continue to roam free amongst the many diverse habitats.  The Pacific Crest Trail, which runs from the Canadian to Mexican borders, will shift 39 of its miles to the breathtaking Ranch, something previously only dreamed of.

The Tejon Ranch concept, which will create 1,500 additional permanent jobs and 1,600 construction jobs, appears to be a win-win for everyone concerned.  Isn’t it great when there is intelligent compromise that both spurs the economy and preserves our precious earth?

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Christie fires first shot

Wednesday, December 23rd, 2009

New Jersey Governor-elect Chris Christie fired a warning shot across the bow of state government this week.  The message is refreshing and offers a glimmer of hope that the sinking ship that is New Jersey may be rescued after all.

The state’s director of the Office of Management and Budget, on behalf of Christie’s transition team, sent out a three page memo via email to all state department heads.  It warned of three upcoming scenarios: a cut to their operating budgets of either 15%, 20%, or 25% in the upcoming new year.

In a state with an anticipated $8 billion budget shortfall, those cuts in real dollars equal $3.8 billion, $5.1 billion, or $6.4 billion.  And departments can’t achieve their cuts by shifting payments on outstanding debt.  It has to be tangible cuts to services and labor force.  All this means no magic tricks, no slight of hand.  Also, cost-of-living (COL) increases will not be automatic.

Department heads have until January 6th to make their initial recommendations for budget cuts.  Meanwhile, groups who receive state funding are sweating out the results.  Everyone is going to lose something.  But it has to be that way.

Congratulations to Governor-elect Christie for not keeping the status quo.  To use a quote made famous nearly 60 years ago, “Give ‘em hell, Harry!”

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Banks: Tight Purse Strings

Tuesday, December 22nd, 2009

As any active realtor knows, banks are more tight-fisted with loan money now than in the past decade.  In the spirit of this Christmas season, you could even call them Scrooge.

The tried and true banking tradition is that banks took deposits from customers, paying a certain interest rate, then lent money to borrowers at a higher rate.  The difference in the interest rates was their profit.

The model has changed since the number of bank failures rose from three in 2007 and 25 in 2008 to 140 in 2009. 

Banks are now borrowing at near-zero percent interest rates to get short term loans for themselves and putting the money into Treasury notes and other higher-yielding government securities.  They make a profit with no risk (unless the United States collapses).  This practice is called playing the yield curve, or carry trade.

Loans given out to consumers and businesses in America have dropped 8% in the last year.  The banks claim that less people want loans.  Our experience as realtors tells us a different story.  We’re seeing people with solid credit and income getting turned down for loans in this vacation home market here at the South Jersey shore.  At our agency, we’ve put a lot more properties in 2009 “under contract” than in 2008, but we’ve closed on fewer than last year.

Right now only FHA-backed loans, which account for 30% of home loans compared to just 3% in 2006, seem a sure thing.  Loans for second homes and businesses are tough to obtain.  Banks literally want no risk when giving a mortgage.

When the economy finishes turning around and businesses begin hiring, maybe banks will feel comfortable again lending money.  Until then, many realtors and consumers will have to continue treading water.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Weather Extremes

Monday, December 21st, 2009

This weekend’s snow storm – or “storm event” as the weathermen seem to be calling it nowadays – was the conclusion to a crazy autumn of weather in Cape May County,  and the mid-Atlantic states for that matter.

With our local weather influenced by the close proximity of the Atlantic Ocean and 13-mile wide Delaware Bay, snowfall totals were much less than the 23″ that Philadelphia officially received.  The Wildwoods had about 2 inches, with Rio Grande about 4″, Cape May Court House about 6″, Swainton 8″, and Dennis Township nearly 12″.  By going just 16 miles north from Wildwood, the snowfall amount drastically increased.  By the time you got to Egg Harbor or Hammonton in Atlantic County, you’re talking two feet of the white powder.  What kept Cape May County towns down in snow amounts was the amount of time we got rain, mid-storm, instead of snow.

A look back at the Fall of 2009 foreshadows the significant precipitation.  September saw at least 7″ of rain, over double the normal.  October had nearly 9″ of rain, triple the norm.  November was normal, but the first half of December again had triple precipitation.  Doesn’t it seem like since May its been one day of heavy rain, followed by two days of drying out, then the cycle repeats over and over and over again for the next six months?

All this brings me to the raging controversy – global warming.  Believe it or not, you can’t deny that our industrial century of spewing CO2 into the atmosphere has had an effect on our weather.  And lives.  We have more extremes of heat and cold, floods and drought.

When the US Chamber of Commerce recently challenged the science behind climate change, they discovered that much of their membership did not agree.  Nike stepped down from its seat on the board of directors, and General Electric disavowed that the Chamber spoke for all it’s members, or even the majority.  Apple, Exelon, and Pacific Gas & Electric quit the chamber in protest, as did others. 

Still, only 57% of Americans now believe the earth is warming, down from 77% in 2006.  This despite the fact the 8 of the 10 warmest years in recorded weather history (about 125 years) have come in the last 14 years.  The Arctic is warmer than it has been in 2,000 years and ships now routinely sail through Arctic waters, a notion unthinkable two decades ago.

Few will deny that our dependence on petroleum must be drastically curtailed, whether for economic or climate reasons.  The answer, of course, is wind power, solar power, and water power.  These will be the norms in 30 years and civilization will look back at petroleum and wonder what took so long.  By then, petroleum will only be for plastics, perfumes, and manufacturing, and a barrel of crude oil will fetch about $10.

The emergence of these “green” energy sources threaten another dirty industry.  The coal states – West Virginia, Kentucky, Wyoming, Colorado, to name the biggies – continue to argue for jobs over an end to mountaintop removal and generating electricity via coal-fired plants.  Locally, the power station in Beesleys Point uses 90 coal cars of the black death each week, yes, WEEK!  Directly downwind is Ocean City, which has the most polluted air in the county.   Nationally, 27% of all CO2 emissions come from coal-fired power plants!

Green energy will create more jobs than ending our dependency on oil and coal will lose.  Eventually the east coast, mountain ridges nationwide, and the flat midwest will be dotted with windmills.  The southwest will have hundreds of square miles of solar panels.

These scenarios are going to happen.  The sooner the better, I say.

While the earth goes in cycles and it is in a natural warming cycle right now, CO2 is accelerating the warming.  The earth has shown that all warming cycles end in an ice age.  This one will, too. 

I’m still cold from this weekend’s snow event and sub-freezing temperatures.  Let’s move forward on slowing down global warming so the next ice age doesn’t get here anytime too soon.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com

Dennis Township gets Liquor Store

Thursday, December 17th, 2009

Back in 2006, Dennis Township auctioned its first-ever liquor license for a retail store, known as a Plenary Retail Distribution License.  In New Jersey ABC lingo, it’s known as a “44″ license, meaning the liquor is for off-premises consumption only.

With just two bidders, the license went for $1.1 million.  The township set a minimum bid of $700,000, and the other bid was unsuccessful at $756,000.

The winning bidder sold the license to the Gleeson family earlier this year and they will be building their liquor store in Oceanview at the busy and highly-visible corner of Route 9 and Sea Isle Boulevard.

Plans include 4,000 square feet of retail space and an additional 4,700 square feet for storage space and offices.  The family, which owns Gleeson Contractors, will be constructing the building themselves.  The business is slated to be open for sales by Memorial Day.

Dennis Township has been “dry” since it was incorporated in 1826.  In 2001, voters approved a referendum to allow liquor.  Dennis auctioned one of its two permitted restaurant liquor licenses in 2002 to Shore Gate Golf Club, which bid the minimum set price of $300,000 to acquire the coveted license.

Of Cape May County’s 16 municipalities, only Ocean City, Wildwood Crest, and Cape May Point remain “dry” towns.

- Mountain Man

http://www.MountainManandCityGirl.com